Is Tajikistan a new Chinese province? Has China sent troops to Tajikistan? History of the territorial dispute China has once again put forward territorial demands on Tajikistan.
Several Russian media outlets immediately reprinted the message that appeared in early May in the online publication Forum.msk. Citing unnamed sources in the Tajik opposition, the publication reported that Chinese troops had captured the eastern Pamirs in the Murghab region of Tajikistan and taken control of the only highway in the region.
The publication also reported that over the years of independence, Tajikistan has already transferred 1.5 thousand square kilometers of disputed territories to China, the total area of which is 28.5 thousand square meters. km. It is also alleged that at the beginning of the year, Dushanbe, in order to pay off its external debt to Beijing, was preparing to transfer part of the Pamir highlands, which are considered unsuitable for life, but are rich in deposits of precious stones, rare minerals and even uranium. Exploration work has already begun in Murghab, maps are being made and the assessment of deposits will begin in the near future, it said. edition
“No one knows exactly what the volume of uranium deposits is in Badakhshan, but it is known that there is uranium there,” said Anatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk. - In addition, there are many deposits of strategic raw materials, including tungsten and rare earth metals. It is true that Murghab, where there is snow even in summer, is of little use for life. But this is an important strategic point - Murghab lies on the Pamir Highway, thus the PRC will control the only transport artery in the Pamirs. In general, Tajikistan is the buckle of the soldier’s belt with which Russia holds Central Asia, and the surrender of positions in Tajikistan is the surrender of the entire region, up to Orenburg and Astrakhan. Although, when Russian border troops left the Tajik-Afghan border by Putin’s decision, it was already clear that Russia was leaving the East, and someone would definitely come in its place. China has made a request; by the time the troops withdraw from Afghanistan, it must be assumed that the United States and Great Britain will make their move. Iran and Pakistan are interested. It’s reminiscent of dividing up a dead man’s junk, some boots, some a peacoat...”
However, the information did not find any official confirmation from either the Tajik or Chinese side. However, no clear denials were made either.
A little later, the situation was clarified a little by Kyrgyz journalists from the Vesti.kg portal. As the head of the Border Service of Kyrgyzstan, Tokon Mamytov, told them, reports about the entry of Chinese troops into Tajikistan are nothing more than a “canard.” “Just this morning I spoke on the phone with the first deputy chairman of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan, the head of the main department of the Border Troops of Tajikistan, Mirzo Sherali, and he said that the situation is stable. Moreover, to say that China has occupied the Murghab region means, at best, do not understand the processes taking place in Central Asia. Both Dushanbe and Beijing are members of the SCO, which signed a series of documents within the framework of this organization on the observance of territorial integrity. Naturally, information that a friendly state suddenly, for no apparent reason, almost occupied the lands of its neighbor are wrong,” Mamytov said.
Experts have already suggested that the message could be an attempt to put pressure on Dushanbe from Moscow, which also claims influence in the region. However, it is worth noting that precedents for the “quiet” transfer of territories to the PRC from the countries of the former USSR have already taken place earlier, so a similar scenario in Tajikistan cannot be completely ruled out.
Economic expansion of the PRC can turn the republic into a Chinese colony
The ratification in mid-January by the Parliament of Tajikistan of the border delimitation agreement with China, according to which it received about 1.1 thousand square kilometers of the territory of the Eastern Pamirs, once again drew attention to the problem of Chinese expansion in Central Asia. Its territorial dimension is far from the most important thing.
“Border” concessions to China after the collapse of the USSR were made by all the CIS countries bordering it, including Russia. Much more alarming is the economic expansion of the PRC, which can make territorially and demographically small states critically dependent on China.
The economic penetration of the PRC into Tajikistan is a relatively recent phenomenon. Until the middle of the first decade of the 2000s. The Chinese presence in the republic was felt very weakly, not least due to the lack of transport communications connecting the two countries. It was only after the opening of the highway between Tajikistan and the PRC that the volumes of bilateral trade began to grow rapidly. Another factor that influenced the growth of China’s economic activity in the republic was its availability of free financial resources and its willingness to invest them even in those market segments that were not of great interest to other investors. None of the world and regional powers showed any willingness to invest in Tajikistan’s vital infrastructure, and China not only provided loans, but also attracted its own companies to participate in these projects.
Economic cooperation between the two countries began to grow at a particularly rapid pace during the global crisis. The position of Tajikistan’s largest trading partner, Russia, has noticeably worsened in these years, which could not but lead to a decrease in economic activity. In addition, Russian-Tajik relations were not well influenced by Russia's support for Uzbekistan's position on the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station in early 2009. The deterioration of political relations had a negative impact on the economy. The project for completing the station itself was frozen after Rusal and the leadership of Tajikistan were unable to reach an agreement on the height of the dam, as well as the sale of shares in the republic’s largest enterprise, the Tajik Aluminum Smelter (Talco). As a result, an investment project worth several billion dollars was frozen, and all attempts to complete the hydroelectric power station through a campaign to sell its shares to the population have so far led to nothing.
In this situation, the Tajik authorities began to look for, if not a replacement, then an economic counterweight to Russia, the only contender for which was China. He did not lay claim to the Russian “sphere of influence”, but willingly participated in those projects that were not of great interest to Russia.
Thus, in May 2008, in Beijing, a contract was signed between Talco and the China National Heavy Engineering Corporation for the construction of aluminum fluoride and cryolite production plants in the republic, which, in accordance with the initial agreements, were to be built by Rusal. According to the contract, two plants were to be built in the Yavan region of Tajikistan with a total cost of about 30 million dollars, which were supposed to provide Talco with raw materials for the production of primary aluminum, previously imported by the company from Russia, the Baltic states and China. Among the projects implemented by China in the mining field, it is also worth noting the development of gold deposits in the Penjikent region.
Projects in the most promising sector of the Tajik economy - the electric power industry - are attracting growing interest from the PRC. China is not yet seeking to replace Russia as the main investor in the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station. Largely due to the reluctance to spoil relations with Uzbekistan, through whose territory the Turkmenistan-China transcontinental gas pipeline passes. However, Chinese companies are already actively involved in smaller projects. In the Khatlon region of Tajikistan, the Sinohydro company plans to build the Zeravshan hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 150 MW, as well as the Nurabad hydroelectric power station-2 with a capacity of 350 MW. In the capital of the republic, it is planned to build a thermal power plant with a capacity of 200 MW, which will run on coal rather than imported gas. The implementation of these projects will reduce Tajikistan’s dependence on Uzbekistan in the field of natural gas supplies. In addition, China is financing the construction of high-voltage power transmission lines “Lolazor-Khatlon” and “South-North”, which will allow Tajikistan’s energy system to operate independently of the United Energy System of Central Asia, which operated until recently, and in the future, to begin exporting electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
China is actively involved in the construction of highways, with the help of which Tajikistan seeks to increase its transport and communication capabilities and reduce dependence on Uzbekistan, through which most road transport is currently carried out. The key project in this area is the restoration of the Dushanbe-Kulma international highway, which connects the Khatlon region with Gorno-Badahan, and then with the Karakoram highway (PRC). Among other things, this road should contribute to the socio-economic development of the southern and western parts of the republic. Of the $51.6 million that makes up the cost of the first phase of the project, $49 million was financed by the Export-Import Bank of China and $2 million by Tajikistan. In addition, the Exim Bank of China allocated most of the funds for the reconstruction of the Dushanbe-Khujand-Chanak highway leading to the border with Uzbekistan. The cost of work on this project amounted to 295.9 million dollars, of which 281.1 million dollars. provided by China, and 14.8 million by the government of Tajikistan. The Chinese side is financing the construction of the Dushanbe-Jirgatal-Osh highway in the direction of Kyrgyzstan, as well as tunnels under the Shahristan and Shar-Shar passes, connecting Dushanbe with the Khatlon region. The construction work for these projects is carried out by Chinese companies, which prefer to use Chinese workers.
The presence of China in other sectors of the Tajik economy is less noticeable, although quite significant for the republic. As in all CIS countries, Chinese manufacturers of telecommunications equipment - ZTE and Huawei Technologies Co. - are actively present in the Tajikistan market. Ltd. In addition, there are two cellular companies in the republic created with the participation of the Chinese side - M-Teco and TK-Mobile, the sole founder of which was ZTE. Unlike other cellular operators, whose founders are Russian and American companies, M-Teco and TK-Mobile operate in the CDMA standard, which is common in China and the countries of Southeast Asia. Compared to the GSM standard adopted in Russia, it is considered more environmentally friendly, but the low prevalence of CDMA networks in the CIS puts it at a competitive disadvantage compared to GSM operators.
The economic expansion of the PRC in Tajikistan was most clearly manifested in the sphere of trade. If in the first years after the collapse of the USSR the volumes of bilateral trade were insignificant, then from the mid-2000s they began to grow like an avalanche.
According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi, voiced during his visit to China in April 2010, during the first decade of independence, the growth in bilateral trade volumes was not very significant: if in 1993 it amounted to 8.9 million, then in 2003 - 38.8 million dollars. However, over the next few years, trade between China and Tajikistan began to double almost every year. In 2004 it amounted to 68.8 million dollars, in 2005 - 157.8 million, in 2006 - 323.7 million, and in 2007 - 524 million dollars. 2008 was a record year, when the foreign trade turnover of the two countries surpassed the billion mark and reached 1 billion 679.8 million. Despite the crisis, in the next year 2009 the scale of trade decreased very slightly and amounted to 1 billion 450 million dollars. In just 16 years, this figure has increased 116 times, thanks to which China has firmly entered the top three foreign trade partners of Tajikistan since 2005, taking first place in terms of investment in the country’s economy.
However, the structure of bilateral trade remains extremely unbalanced. Tajikistan supplies China almost exclusively with aluminum and cotton fiber, that is, raw materials, while consumer goods and food go in the opposite direction. At the same time, the volume of Chinese imports is several times higher than exports. According to the Institute of Political Analysis and Forecast (Bishkek) in 1999-2004. Imports from China to Tajikistan increased by 22.8 times, while Tajik exports to China increased by only 2.44 times. In 2006, for example, China supplied goods worth $69.2 million to Tajikistan, and Tajikistan – only $5.5 million. The Internet resource “Central Eurasia” estimates Chinese exports to Tajikistan in 2008 at $646 million, and Tajik exports to China at $109 million. As a result, the share of goods imported from China accounted for 20% of Tajikistan’s imports, and the supply of Tajik products to China accounted for only 7.3% of exports. Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are rich in hydrocarbons, Tajikistan simply has nothing to offer in exchange for Chinese consumer goods, industrial equipment and investments, and therefore its trade balance is constantly in deficit.
The flip side of these processes is the growing economic dependence of Tajikistan on China. The development trends of their cooperation are such that in the near future China will become the main economic partner of Tajikistan. According to Tajik statistics for the first half of 2010, the main foreign trade partners of the republic were Russia (402 million dollars), China (359.4 million dollars), Turkey (170.5 million dollars), Kazakhstan (117 .4 million dollars) and Iran (94.1 million dollars). Considering the growth rate of Chinese imports, China has very little time left to catch up with Russia. Perhaps this will happen this or next year. And a change in the main economic partner will inevitably entail changes in foreign policy. In addition, Tajikistan has found itself in strong debt dependence on China in recent years. At the end of 2010, the external debt of the republic reached 1 billion 790.4 million dollars, 655 million of which fell to China, 378 million to the World Bank, 325 million to the Asian Development Bank and 85 million to the Islamic Bank. . Tajikistan accounts for 2/3 of all loans provided by China to Central Asian countries. While promoting the development of the Tajik economy, they at the same time increase the debt burden. It is no coincidence that the Ministry of Finance considers one of its main goals to be to prevent the growth of external debt in the amount of more than 40% of GDP, which would create a threat to the budget.
It is possible that the territorial concessions that Tajikistan has recently made are only the first case indicating its growing economic dependence on the PRC. When discussing the border delimitation agreement, it became clear that no one in the republic really knows which part of Gorno-Badakhshan will be transferred to China. It is believed that this will be an uninhabited territory of the Murghab region, located at an altitude of 5 thousand meters above sea level. However, the famous Tajik academician R. Masov suggested that the territory south of the Uz-Bel pass, ceded to the PRC, is rich in deposits of rare earth metals - uranium, gold, nickel, mercury, etc. According to geologists, the areas of the Markansu Valley or Lake Rangkul located in this area are rich in deposits of placer gold and precious metals. So the cession of a certain piece of territory to China may not be accidental at all. In any case, part of the highlands located in close proximity to the borders of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan with its American bases may have important geopolitical and even more so military-strategic significance for the PRC.
China took control of part of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan to pay off Tajikistan’s external debt.
Troops of the People's Republic of China entered the territory of Tajikistan and established control over a large area of land in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of the country.
This was reported by the News-Asia portal.
According to the publication, China began sending in its troops on May 6. It also became known that the territories of Tajikistan were transferred to pay off external debt. In total, during the years of Tajikistan’s independence, the Chinese were given 1.5 thousand square kilometers of land, which, in fact, is a disputed territory.
The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region is known for its oppositional position regarding the central government; its residents did not always obey the decisions of official Dushanbe, often causing dissatisfaction with the country's leadership.
Let us also recall that in the summer of 2012, a conflict broke out in the autonomy, provoked by the center, in which civilians also died. Gorno-Badakhshan came to the defense of its field commanders, who were being persecuted by the country's authorities.
If expansion with the involvement of the military from China continues, it is possible that another conflict will break out in the region, experts say.
At the beginning of 2013, many analysts warned that official Dushanbe was preparing an act on the transfer of land to China, but no one took the information seriously at that time. Experts argued that the territories would be given to China to pay off the external debt. In the future, high mountainous lands unsuitable for life will be granted to China. However, China sees good prospects in these lands, as they are supposedly rich in deposits of precious stones, uranium and minerals.
The Chinese have already begun geological exploration work, and they legitimized Beijing’s actions in Tajikistan by adopting amendments to the law “On Subsoil”, legalizing the development of deposits by legal entities from abroad.
It also became known that not only military personnel, but also civilians have already begun to enter the territory of Tajikistan. The latter will develop the lands where ethnic Tajiks once lived.
The deployment of troops by a foreign neighboring state into the territory of its neighbor does not always look like aggression. For example, the other day, or rather, starting on May 6, the People's Republic of China quietly and quietly introduced its troops into... the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan. Thus, the Celestial Empire expanded its territory, taking under its military control vast lands that once belonged to the Soviet Union.
Such, if I may say so, “quiet aggression” in the language of diplomacy sounds like Tajikistan transferring its territories to China to pay off the external debt of a neighbor greedy for foreign land. During the years of its post-Soviet existence, Dushanbe transferred 1.5 thousand square kilometers of land to the Chinese.
The Tajiks' loss of their lands is caused by separatist tendencies that are taking place in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Okrug. The local elite did not share power with official Dushanbe. The result is obvious: now, in all likelihood, residents of GBAO will learn Chinese. After all, furiously shouted slogans about the desire to live independently do not a priori mean economic prosperity. Of course, it doesn’t take much intelligence to ignore decisions made in the political center, i.e. in Dushanbe. It takes a lot of intelligence to actually remain independent and become a prosperous country.
The reality is harsh: empty-headed loudmouths who do not hesitate to take up arms against the central government and shed blood are forced to give up their land to a powerful neighboring state, losing political and all other forms of independence. What is happening can be regarded as an orientally sophisticated revenge of the official authorities of Tajikistan on the local leaders of armed anti-government formations: they say, if you don’t want to be with us, then... let China swallow you... In general, you have jumped, gentlemen of dissent... And Dushanbe remains in some way a winner - at least there will be less debt to China.
In turn, China is interested not so much in new areas (after all, we are talking about mountainous areas that are unsuitable for life), but rather in the riches of the earth’s subsoil. The depths of the lands of GBAO contain reserves of precious stones, deposits of uranium and other minerals that are so necessary for the rapidly developing economy of China. Chinese specialists have already begun active geological exploration work.
Information has emerged that on May 6, China established control over the Murghab district of the Gorno-Badakhshan region of Tajikistan, which is being transferred to pay off Dushanbe’s external debt to Beijing.
The publication referred to unnamed sources in the Tajik opposition and clarified that there is no official confirmation of this information.
In the same time Head of the Border Service of Kyrgyzstan Tokon Mamytov He denied this information and called it a newspaper “duck.” He told Kyrgyz journalists from portal "Vesti.kg" that he spoke with the head Main Directorate of Border Troops of Tajikistan Mirzo Sherali, and he reported that the situation in Tajikistan is stable.
Mamytov fundamentally rejected the very suggestion that China could suddenly take and occupy any of its neighbor’s lands, given the friendly relations between the countries and the series of documents on respect for territorial integrity that both countries signed within the SCO.However, despite these denials, some media continue to spread unconfirmed information about the “invasion” of the PRC in Tajikistan.
Background
First of all, let us outline the fact that the PRC claims all territories that were previously part of the empire Qing.
This dynasty was the last dynasty of monarchical China and ruled from 1616 to 1912.
In addition to China itself, the Qing Empire included part of Mongolia, part of Central Asia, Taiwan and other lands.
China has long wanted to return the so-called “lost territories” and has claims against all its neighbors. The issue of disputed territories in the Amur region between Russia and China was resolved back in 2005.
The issue of the border between China and Tajikistan was resolved gradually. At the same time, it was resolved diplomatically.
IN 1999 An agreement was signed “On the Tajik-Chinese state border”, according to which Tajikistan retained control over the disputed area in the Karzak Pass area, but transferred about 200 square meters of the Markansu River valley to China.
IN 2002 An additional agreement was signed “On border demarcation and settlement of territorial disputes”, according to which Tajikistan was supposed to cede 1 thousand square kilometers of land to China in the Eastern Pamirs (Murghab region of Tajikistan), although China initially claimed 28 thousand square kilometers.
IN 2011 Tajikistan transferred these lands to the PRC. Experts noted that Dushanbe ceded them in order to maintain good neighborly relations with Beijing, since China is the main investor in the economy of Tajikistan. Then it was said that the territorial dispute was over.
The government of the republic gave the PRC part of the land of Tajikistan to repay the external debt.
The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan promises to become another conflict center in connection with the actions of official Dushanbe. The latter, according to Tajik oppositionists (most of whom represent the interests of GBAO warlords - author's note), gave hundreds of hectares of land to China to pay off the external debt. Among the territories allegedly transferred to the People's Republic of China is part of the lands of the Gorno-Badakhshan Murghab region. For China, they are of particular importance because they represent an important strategic potential, allow them to control security issues in disputed territories, and, according to some sources, deposits of precious stones and minerals are located in this area.
The opposition of GBAO notes that a week ago, on May 6, official Beijing began expansion into the territory of Tajikistan, transferring Chinese military personnel to the region. They must ensure order in the process of land development by civilians. It is known that when constructing strategic facilities, developing deposits, and launching production, China practices using its own troops as labor. For example, Beijing intended to build a railway through Kyrgyzstan with the help of Chinese construction troops. A similar situation exists today in Tajikistan.
In just over 20 years of independence of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe gave up more than 1.5 thousand square kilometers of its own territories. Thus, in mid-January 2011, the parliament of the republic ratified the protocol on the demarcation of its border, essentially giving the Chinese almost 1.1 thousand square kilometers of disputed territories, which amounted to almost 0.8 percent of the territory of Tajikistan itself. It turns out that over two decades, the country’s leadership gave China about 1 percent of the total area of the state. This fact was then widely covered by the media of the two countries. Later, the same parliament amended the law “On Subsoil”, allowing foreign investors to develop deposits on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan.
Dushanbe refused to officially confirm the fact of another transfer of land that had already been developed by the Chinese military, but did not deny it. By the way, numerous experts periodically warned the public of Tajikistan about this, but the forecasts remained at the level of pseudo-statements. Meanwhile, as sources in GBAO assure, today China is conducting active geological exploration in Murghab and in nearby territories. The Chinese began to move into the region, and over time they may completely displace the indigenous inhabitants from the area.
“The government of Tajikistan should have held a referendum in Gorno-Badakhshan on this issue,” Khurshed Atovullo, chairman of the Center for Investigative Journalism of the Republic of Tatarstan, expressed his opinion to New Region-Asia. – I consider this deal illegal. The reaction to this government decision is visible to everyone. It is known that Badakhshan has long been considered an unstable part of Tajikistan. In all negotiations with former warlords from this region, the government of Tajikistan constantly raises the issue of the illegal transfer of part of the region to China.
The expansion is confirmed by statistics. Thus, back in 2007, according to information from the migration service of Tajikistan, about 30 thousand Chinese migrant workers entered the country and were employed in the construction of roads and electrical substations. Many of them did not return to their homeland after completing the projects and preferred to stay in the Republic of Tatarstan. At the beginning of 2010, the number of immigrants from China in the republic exceeded 80 thousand people. Claims to the lands of Tajikistan by China were recorded by historians at the end of the 19th century. It is known that in 1884, China and Russia signed an agreement called “New Margelan”, according to which the authorities of the current PRC laid claim to more than 28 thousand square kilometers of Tajik territory, of which today they managed to appropriate only a twentieth part.
